Two Wave Severe Storm Threat to Strike Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin Monday With Damaging Winds, Large Hail and Tornadoes as Level 3 Enhanced Risk Holds With Possible Level 4 Upgrade
MIDWEST — An updated look at the Monday severe weather threat is coming into sharper focus, with forecasters now seeing storms arriving in at least two distinct waves across the Midwest. The overall threat level remains at Level 3 Enhanced Risk out of 5, but the Storm Prediction Center has hinted at a possible upgrade to Level 4 somewhere in the Midwest before all is said and done. A new SPC severe weather outlook was expected around 1:00 AM to clarify whether that upgrade becomes official.
Two Waves, Two Different Threats
The first wave arrives late Sunday night into early Monday morning. These storms are not expected to be severe in most cases but will bring heavy downpours, thunder, and lightning across the region. Radar imagery shows significant storm coverage already pushing through areas including Chicago, Rockford, Cedar Rapids, and Peoria during the Sunday night into Monday morning window. A break in storm activity is expected around midday Monday, give or take a few hours in either direction.
The More Dangerous Afternoon and Evening Window
What happens during that midday break will be the critical factor in how severe Monday afternoon becomes. If sunshine breaks through, isolated to scattered storms could fire during the afternoon and carry serious punch. However, forecasters acknowledge those afternoon storms may not develop at all, making this the biggest uncertainty in the current forecast.
What is far more certain is that an organized complex of storms, possibly two separate complexes, will sweep through the region during the late afternoon and early evening hours around dinnertime. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes and will need to be watched closely.
Level 4 Upgrade Still on the Table
The threat level has not changed in either direction over the past 24 hours, holding steady at Level 3 Enhanced Risk. However, the SPC has signaled that a Level 4 Moderate Risk upgrade may be needed somewhere in the Midwest as the situation becomes clearer.
Whether that upgrade applies to this specific area remains to be seen, but residents should prepare as though it could. Stay connected to updated forecasts through Sunday night and share your storm reports at SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com.
