NHC Tracking Gulf Disturbance With 60 Percent Formation Chance as Flash Flooding Threatens South Texas Tuesday With Houston Under Close Watch

HOUSTON, TX — The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical disturbance in the Western Gulf of Mexico with a 60% two-day cyclone formation chance as of Tuesday, June 16, while widespread showers and thunderstorms are already impacting south Texas today — particularly south of Interstate 10 where flash flooding is possible — as forecasters watch the system’s track closely ahead of its expected Wednesday approach toward the Texas coast.

NHC Disturbance Update

NOAA satellite imagery captured at 7:00 a.m. EDT June 16 shows Disturbance 1 positioned along the western Gulf Coast near the Mexico coastline, with a broad and disorganized but active convective signature visible across the Western Gulf basin. The NHC two-day graphical tropical weather outlook issued at 7:42 a.m. EDT Tuesday assigns a 60% cyclone formation probability — placing this system in the medium-to-high development category within the two-day window.

The orange X marker on the NHC graphic indicates the disturbance’s current position, with the broad circulation evident in satellite imagery suggesting the system is attempting to organize as it tracks northward toward the Texas coast.

Today’s Flash Flooding Threat

Independent of the disturbance’s ultimate development, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across south Texas today with flash flooding possible across communities south of the I-10 corridor. The heavy rainfall threat is directly associated with tropical moisture streaming northward ahead of the disturbance, producing efficient and persistent rainfall across the region through Tuesday.

Houston’s Situation

Current forecasting suggests the tropical disturbance is expected to track far enough offshore to spare Houston from significant flooding impacts when it moves through the Western Gulf on Wednesday. However, forecasters are maintaining close watch on the system’s track as even small deviations toward the coast could dramatically increase rainfall impacts across the greater Houston metropolitan area.

Residents across Houston and the broader southeast Texas region should monitor National Hurricane Center updates through Tuesday and Wednesday as the disturbance’s track and intensity become clearer.

What to Watch Going Forward

Any tropical system tracking across the Western Gulf on Wednesday has the potential to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Texas coast regardless of formal tropical classification. South Texas residents south of I-10 should remain especially alert given today’s ongoing flash flooding threat.

For continuing coverage of Gulf tropical activity and Texas severe weather, visit SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com.