NOAA Predicts Mild, Dry Winter for Desert Southwest in 2025–2026
PHOENIX, AZ. — Residents across the Desert Southwest should brace for another mild and mostly snow-free winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Winter 2025–2026 outlook released Thursday.
The Climate Prediction Center’s forecast highlights a persistent La Niña pattern, which will steer the jet stream farther north — keeping major storm systems away from Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico through early spring. The result: warmer-than-average temperatures, below-normal precipitation, and a very low chance of measurable snowfall heading into Christmas.
La Niña to Keep Region Warm and Dry
Forecasters say this year’s setup mirrors last winter’s pattern, favoring dry frontal systems and long stretches of clear weather across the Southwest.
“This year’s outlook strongly favors a continuation of warm, dry conditions,” NOAA meteorologists said.
That means most areas — including Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Albuquerque — can expect mild daytime highs, cool nights, and little to no snow throughout the holiday season. While northern Arizona’s higher elevations and parts of New Mexico’s mountains may see brief snow showers, widespread winter weather remains highly unlikely.
Potential Drought and Fire Concerns by Early 2026
The warm, dry trend is expected to intensify in January and February 2026, increasing drought pressure and raising wildfire risks across the region. NOAA warned that reduced snowpack along the Mogollon Rim and southern Rockies could worsen Colorado River Basin water shortages heading into spring.
“Snowpack is a vital component of the region’s water supply,” forecasters noted. “Below-average snowfall this winter could impact reservoir levels and agricultural outlooks by early summer.”
Minimal Travel Disruptions but Dust Storms Possible
For travelers, the mild winter will likely mean fewer weather-related disruptions along major highways such as I-10, I-17, and I-40. However, forecasters caution that dust storms could develop during dry cold fronts or strong wind events, particularly across desert corridors in southern Arizona and southern New Mexico.
By late March, meteorologists expect stronger winds and occasional cool fronts, followed by a rapid return to warm spring temperatures.
A Mild Christmas in the Southwest
With La Niña firmly in control, residents should expect a dry and comfortable holiday season, characterized by sunny days and crisp evenings — but little chance of a white Christmas.
“While the northern mountains might see a few light snow showers, most of the Desert Southwest will experience a quiet, mild winter,” NOAA said.
As drought concerns mount, experts encourage residents to continue water conservation efforts and fire safety precautions throughout the season.
For continued updates on NOAA’s winter forecasts and local weather alerts, visit SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com, where regional climate coverage keeps communities informed across the South and West.
