Hurricane Season Not Over Yet: NHC Warns of 70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in Caribbean
MIAMI, FLORIDA — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close eye on a growing tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean Sea, which forecasters say now carries a 70% chance of developing into a cyclone over the next seven days.
In its Sunday afternoon update, the NHC identified the system as Disturbance 1, noting that it continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms as it drifts west-northwest toward the western Caribbean. Meteorologists say environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual organization, with the potential for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form by midweek.
System Could Impact Caribbean Islands and Central America
The area of concern currently extends from the eastern Caribbean to the Yucatán Channel, raising potential impacts for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and parts of Central America later this week.
Forecasters say that if the system continues to strengthen, it could bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and rough surf to several island nations and coastal regions. Officials are urging residents to monitor weather advisories and prepare for rapidly changing conditions.
“While this system remains disorganized for now, the atmospheric setup is conducive to development,” the NHC said in its outlook. “We encourage those in the western Caribbean and surrounding areas to stay alert and review hurricane preparedness plans.”
Hurricane Season Still Active Through November 30
Though the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, late-season storms are not unusual — especially in the Caribbean basin, where warm ocean waters can fuel tropical activity well into November.
This potential storm comes as meteorologists note that 2025 has been an active year for tropical weather, with several systems forming later than usual due to lingering warm sea surface temperatures.
According to Country Herald, officials across the Caribbean and U.S. Gulf Coast are reminding residents to check emergency supplies, review evacuation routes, and stay tuned to local alerts from trusted sources such as the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service.
Officials Urge Continued Vigilance
Experts caution that even if this system doesn’t reach hurricane strength, it could still produce localized flooding and dangerous marine conditions. With more than a month left in hurricane season, preparedness remains critical.
“People tend to let their guard down in October and November,” one NHC meteorologist warned. “But we’ve seen some of the most damaging storms form late in the season — now is not the time to relax.”
Residents across the Caribbean and Gulf regions are encouraged to stay weather-aware and take early precautions.
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