Carolinas, Georgia, and East Tennessee Face High-Impact Winter Storm as Coastal Track Shifts West and Snow Probabilities Rise
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES — A potentially high-impact winter storm is coming into sharper focus for parts of the Carolinas, northeast Georgia, and East Tennessee as forecast guidance continues to trend toward a stronger coastal system capable of producing heavy snow, strong winds, and dangerous travel conditions late this weekend into early next week.
While uncertainty remains regarding the exact storm track, multiple forecast signals now support a more inland solution that would significantly increase snowfall totals across portions of the Southeast that do not typically see widespread winter weather.
What Meteorologists Know Right Now
Forecast models agree on several key elements of this developing system. A strong low-pressure system is expected to organize along the Gulf Coast before intensifying near the Atlantic coastline. Timing currently favors impacts beginning late Saturday night and continuing through Monday morning.
Snow and gusty winds appear likely across higher elevations and interior regions, while coastal areas could see a combination of heavy precipitation and strong winds as the storm deepens offshore.
Snow Probabilities Are Increasing Across the Carolinas
Ensemble guidance from the European weather model shows roughly a 60 percent probability of at least three inches of snow, with the highest likelihood east of Interstate 77 from the Charlotte metro northward and eastward into central and eastern North Carolina.
These probabilities are derived from the average of 51 ensemble members, offering a broader and more reliable snapshot than any single model run. Even small westward shifts in the storm’s track could dramatically increase snowfall totals farther inland.
Why Accumulation Could Be Efficient
Temperatures during the event are expected to remain in the low to mid-20s across much of the interior Southeast, allowing snow to accumulate quickly and stick to untreated roads. Forecast snow-to-liquid ratios near 15:1 suggest lighter, fluffier snow that accumulates more efficiently than typical Southern winter systems.
Cold air is expected to linger behind the storm, meaning hazardous road conditions could persist even after snowfall ends.
Model Differences Still Create Uncertainty
Despite improving confidence, model solutions still vary. The European model continues to trend westward, a scenario that would bring heavy snow—potentially exceeding one foot in isolated areas—across parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachians, along with strong coastal wind gusts.
The GFS model remains farther offshore, limiting snowfall totals inland while focusing heavier impacts closer to the coast. The ICON model keeps most significant impacts offshore, while the Canadian model remains inconsistent and is currently considered a lower-confidence solution.
Wind and Coastal Concerns
As the pressure gradient tightens near the coast, strong wind gusts are possible, particularly across coastal North Carolina and South Carolina. While this appears to be primarily a snow event rather than an ice storm, blowing snow and reduced visibility could lead to dangerous travel conditions, especially during overnight hours.
Power outage risk currently appears limited, but localized issues cannot be ruled out if stronger wind gusts overlap with heavier snow bands.
What Happens Next
Confidence will increase significantly once higher-resolution short-range models begin resolving the storm later this week. Until then, residents across the Carolinas, Georgia, and East Tennessee should closely monitor forecast updates and be prepared for potential winter weather disruptions.
Travel impacts remain the primary concern, especially given the region’s limited snow-removal infrastructure and the likelihood of cold temperatures persisting after the storm.
Stay with SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com for continued updates, refined snowfall projections, and the latest advisories as meteorologists narrow down the storm’s final track and impacts.
