Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas Likely to Miss Out on Major Snow as Winter Models Favor Heavy Northern Storms Through January
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — New long-range weather models suggest that Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas may remain largely snow-free this winter, even as the northern United States braces for a series of strong snow-producing storms through mid-January 2026.
Data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), released December 5, shows a stark contrast between regions. The Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast are projected to receive multiple rounds of heavy snow, while the Deep South stays mostly under cold, dry high pressure systems.
Heavy Snow Locked North of the 35°N Line
Forecasters say an active northern jet stream will dominate the early part of 2026, keeping most of the snow well above the 35th parallel — roughly the latitude dividing Tennessee from Alabama and Georgia.
According to meteorologist Brooks Taylor, “The storm track looks locked in across the northern tier of the country. The South will get plenty of cold air but not the moisture needed to create significant snow events.”
Snowfall projections through January 20 show widespread accumulations of 12–18 inches across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York, with additional activity expected in Montana and the Pacific Northwest.
Texas to the Carolinas: Cold But Nearly Snowless
While northern states prepare for a steady parade of snow systems, the Southern U.S. appears likely to miss out once again.
- Texas: Only the northern Panhandle could see flurries or light snow; most of the state will remain dry.
- Mississippi: Cold mornings and frosty nights are expected, but no measurable snow is forecast.
- Alabama: Northern Alabama might see freezing rain or sleet, but forecasters call snow “unlikely.”
- Georgia: Temperatures may dip below freezing, but snowfall chances remain minimal — particularly for Atlanta and central regions.
- The Carolinas: Northern and mountain areas of North Carolina could see 1–3 inches in higher elevations, but South Carolina remains almost completely snow-free.
“For snow lovers across the Deep South, this looks like another year of disappointment,” said Taylor. “The setup simply doesn’t favor moisture and cold air meeting in the same place.”
Tennessee and Northern North Carolina Could See a Glancing Blow
Areas just north of the core South — particularly Tennessee and the Appalachian regions — may still catch the outer edge of a few systems.
Cities such as Knoxville, Nashville, and Asheville could see a dusting to an inch of snow during mid-to-late December as small-scale waves pass through. However, meteorologists emphasize that these would be brief, isolated events.
Meteorological Setup Behind the Divide
The reason for the South’s snow shutout lies in the jet stream configuration.
A persistent ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and an active polar jet across the northern U.S. are steering storm systems away from the Deep South, keeping cold air and precipitation separated.
This pattern limits Gulf moisture return and prevents the type of southern snow events seen in past winters.
“The South will stay cold, but it won’t have the ingredients for a widespread snow event,” explained meteorologist Caleb Davis. “The northern jet is dominating every system right now.”
Southern Snow Lovers May Have to Wait
While there’s still time for patterns to shift later in the winter, long-range ensemble data gives the Deep South less than a 20% chance of seeing measurable snow before late January.
If the rare flurry does occur, residents can expect social media to erupt with what one forecaster jokingly called ‘Snowpocalypse 2026: The Southern Edition.’
For now, Texans, Mississippians, Alabamians, Georgians, and Carolinians should prepare for cold air, frost, and occasional rain, but not much in the way of a white landscape.
Stay updated with continuing regional forecasts at SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com.
