NOAA Forecasts Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season, Urges Early Preparation
COLUMBIA, S.C. – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reaffirmed its prediction for an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, warning residents to take action now rather than waiting for a storm to form.
Updated Thursday, the forecast calls for 13 to 18 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. The outlook covers the full season from June 1 to November 30 and already includes the four named tropical storms that have formed this year.
Factors Driving a Busy Season
NOAA officials attribute the increased activity to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, an active West African Monsoon, and neutral ENSO conditions — meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is influencing weather patterns.
“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Early Season Activity
So far, no hurricanes have formed, but Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in the Carolinas over the Independence Day weekend, bringing high winds and deadly flooding.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, cautioned that “no two storms are alike”, urging residents to have an evacuation and safety plan in place before severe weather approaches.
Statistical Outlook
- Chance of above-normal activity: 50%
- Chance of near-normal season: 35%
- Chance of below-normal season: 15%
In a typical Atlantic season, there are about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Eastern & Central Pacific Outlook
While the Atlantic basin is expected to see elevated activity, NOAA’s forecast for a below-average Eastern Pacific season — 12 to 18 named storms — remains unchanged. The Central Pacific is expected to see only one to four named storms.
Not a Landfall Prediction
NOAA emphasized that its hurricane season outlook is not a landfall forecast. Whether and where a storm will hit depends on short-term weather patterns, which can only be predicted about a week in advance.
For storm-specific updates, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issues seven-day tropical weather outlooks, along with detailed track and intensity forecasts once a storm forms.
Residents are urged to monitor updates on hurricanes.gov and follow official alerts on X (@NHC_Atlantic) and Facebook.
With South Carolina’s long coastline and history of hurricane impacts, preparation is critical. Do you have your emergency kit and evacuation plan ready? Share your tips with us at SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com.
