MEMPHIS, Tenn. — A developing La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean could bring a milder, drier winter to Tennessee and parts of the Mid-South, according to forecasters with the National Weather Service in Memphis.

Jet Stream Shift Means Fewer Cold Outbreaks

Meteorologists say sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are currently cooler than average, confirming the onset of a weak La Niña that is expected to last through the 2025–26 winter season.

This setup typically strengthens a high-pressure ridge over the southern U.S., which forces the jet stream northward — steering storms away from the Mid-South and allowing milder temperatures to dominate.

The shift means fewer Arctic blasts for Tennessee and Arkansas and lower odds of major snow events through February. However, forecasters caution that brief cold snaps are still possible.

Warmer Days and Dry Spells Expected

Residents across the region should expect more 50-degree days and longer dry stretches, which could lead to early-season drought conditions if rainfall remains limited.

The National Weather Service advises homeowners to check insulation and protect outdoor pipes ahead of the first freeze while taking advantage of the milder weather to save on heating costs.

“This La Niña isn’t strong, but it’s enough to keep the main storm track north of us,” said a Memphis-area forecaster. “We’ll see some chilly mornings and quick temperature swings, but overall, it’ll be a lighter winter than usual.”

Safety and Travel Tips for Drivers

The Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) reminds drivers to watch for frost and fog during morning commutes, especially along I-40 and I-55. Even in mild winters, these sudden changes can create slick road conditions and reduce visibility.

Looking Ahead

Forecasters say the La Niña is expected to persist through February 2026, with the pattern likely easing by early spring. If the jet stream continues to stay north, Tennessee could face less snow but more variable weather, alternating between warm spells and short-lived cold fronts.

Have you noticed milder winters in recent years? Share your experiences in the comments and follow SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com for ongoing Mid-South weather updates.