Late November Snow Chances Increase Across Southern Plains as Strong Thanksgiving Week Cold Front Pushes South
UNITED STATES – New data from the European Ensemble Forecast System (ECMWF) shows a growing probability of at least one inch of snow across portions of the central and southern United States as November draws to a close. Forecasters say the trend has been shifting farther south each day, aligning with expectations of a strong cold front arriving around Thanksgiving.
Euro Ensembles Show Expanding Snow Zone
The latest ensemble maps highlight a broad corridor of elevated snow chances stretching from the Northern Rockies through the Central Plains and extending into parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and northern Arkansas. In several northern regions, probabilities exceed 70–90%, indicating high confidence in measurable snowfall.
The key metric analyzed in this outlook is the probability of at least one inch of snow, a threshold used to gauge early-season winter impacts.
Thanksgiving Cold Front Driving Increased Snow Risk
Meteorologists point to a strong Arctic front expected to sweep across the country near Thanksgiving. This system will deliver a sharp temperature drop from the Northern Plains to the Southern Plains, increasing the likelihood that late-November storm systems may produce snow instead of rain—especially in areas with overnight lows falling below freezing.
As colder air entrenches itself across the central U.S., snow chances continue trending southward, bringing portions of the Texas Panhandle and surrounding states into the conversation for potential early-season accumulation.
Southern Plains Could See Earlier-Than-Normal Winter Weather
While confidence decreases the farther south the forecast extends, ensemble trends consistently show that parts of the Southern Plains may experience their first measurable snow close to the end of November. This includes regions typically seeing snow later in the season.
Forecasters emphasize that exact snowfall amounts cannot be determined at this range, but the probabilistic shift signals an above-average chance for early winter weather.
Residents across the Plains and Midwest should monitor updated forecasts as Thanksgiving approaches, especially with holiday travel expected to coincide with changing weather patterns.
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