Historic Data Shows Only 6% Chance of Erin Striking North Carolina
RALEIGH, N.C. — Historical hurricane records suggest Tropical Storm Erin has only a 6% chance of striking North Carolina next week. According to CBS 17, data from the past 175 years shows that out of 51 storms passing within 50 miles of Erin’s current position, just three made landfall in North Carolina.
Storm History and Comparisons
The rare instances of landfall include Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane in August 1955, and Hurricane Six in 1933 — the latter occurring before storms were formally named. Most similar storms have veered away from the U.S. coastline, sparing the Carolinas from direct impact.
Chief Meteorologist Wes Hohenstein emphasized that while these historical odds are notable, they have no direct bearing on Erin’s actual forecast for this year. Still, the records underline how uncommon it is for a tropical system in Erin’s current position to reach North Carolina.
Current Forecast Path
The National Hurricane Center projects that Erin could strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by late this weekend, moving just north of the Caribbean. Many forecast models show the storm curving north early next week, passing between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, possibly nearing North Carolina by next Wednesday without making landfall.
While a direct hit appears less likely, meteorologists caution that the forecast will continue to evolve in the coming days and urge residents to remain alert.
Staying Weather-Ready
Forecasters recommend that North Carolinians monitor updates closely and review their hurricane preparedness plans, particularly those living along the coast. Even without landfall, Erin could bring rough surf, rip currents, and heavy rain to parts of the state.
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