Gulf Coast Snowfall Becomes Increasingly Possible as Three Consecutive GFS Runs Show Weekend Accumulation from Louisiana to Northwest Florida
ALABAMA — A developing winter trend is gaining attention across the Deep South after three consecutive GFS model runs showed the potential for snow reaching the Gulf Coast between Saturday night and Sunday morning, January 17–18. The newest output illustrates a consistent stripe of snowfall extending from Louisiana into Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and northwest Florida, prompting forecasters to treat the setup as a realistic possibility.
Three GFS Runs Show the Same Snowfall Stripe
The latest GFS projection reinforces what two earlier runs already indicated: a narrow but persistent band of snow stretching across the southern tier of states. According to the model, a 2–3 inch stripe of heavier snow appears possible, with surrounding areas picking up lighter amounts.
The repeated appearance of this band across three separate runs is significant for the Gulf Coast region, where winter systems typically show large fluctuations.
However, forecasters caution that the model currently shows a simple 10:1 snow ratio, which assumes every flake sticks. Given surface warmth, that is unlikely to be fully accurate.
Ground Temperature: The Biggest Factor
Temperatures across the region are expected to remain above freezing for more than 36 hours leading up to the event.
Because of that, the ground would need time to cool before any snow could accumulate—especially on roads. Even if snow begins falling Saturday night, early flakes may melt on contact until the surface temperature drops enough to support stickage.
This factor alone could influence final totals more than any model-generated map.
Wiregrass, Georgia, and Northwest Florida Hold the Best Odds
While the snowfall map shows totals across Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, Georgia, and northwest Florida, the highest potential appears centered over:
- The Wiregrass region
- Southwest and central Georgia
- Northwest Florida
The analysis notes that Central and North Alabama may not receive much accumulation, even though they sit within the broader shaded zone.
A Growing Winter Weather Signal for the Deep South
The caption on the snowfall map reads, “That’s a trend… 3 runs in a row,” reflecting increasing model confidence. Even with possible overestimation or northern displacement, the trend suggests that the Deep South may face a legitimate winter event—rare for mid-January along the Gulf Coast.
As the weekend approaches, residents in southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, Georgia, and northwest Florida may want to monitor forecast updates closely. The Saluda Standard-Sentinel will continue tracking the latest data and provide updated coverage as confidence builds.
Readers are invited to share whether snow is being discussed in their area and what preparations they are making at SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com.
