Heavy Rainfall Expected Across Texas, Arkansas, and Tennessee Over the Next 10 Days, While Florida and Coastal Carolinas Stay Dry

DALLAS, Texas — Over the next 10 days, the central United States is expected to experience widespread rainfall, with the heaviest totals forecast across Texas, Arkansas, and Tennessee, according to the latest data from Mike’s Weather Page and NOAA Blend of Models. Meanwhile, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are expected to remain unusually dry as the storm track stays concentrated over the nation’s midsection.

Meteorologists say the middle U.S. storm corridor is expected to stay active through Thanksgiving week, bringing several rounds of rain and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The rainfall pattern could deliver anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of precipitation, with localized higher amounts near the central storm zones.

The 10-day precipitation map shows a concentrated area of heavy rainfall extending from central Texas through Arkansas, Tennessee, and southern Missouri, indicating where repeated storm systems are likely to track. This setup aligns with a La Niña-style pattern, which tends to focus storm activity in the South-Central U.S. during fall and early winter months.

Central States Set for Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms

Forecasters are monitoring multiple storm systems that could develop beginning late next week, continuing into Thanksgiving. These systems will likely bring periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and possible localized flooding to much of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee.

NOAA model data suggests the most significant rain totals could occur over:

• Eastern Texas and southern Arkansas: 4 to 5.5 inches possible, with isolated totals near 6 inches.
• Northern Louisiana and western Mississippi: 3 to 4 inches expected by November 25.
• Central Tennessee and southern Missouri: 2.5 to 4 inches possible from multiple rounds of rain.

Meteorologist Mike Boylan from SpaghettiModels.com noted that no major cool fronts are expected to move through before Thanksgiving, allowing warm Gulf moisture to continually fuel storm development in the central states.

Florida and Coastal Carolinas Stay Dry

While parts of the South brace for steady rainfall, Florida and the coastal regions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are expected to remain mostly dry. Forecasters say these areas will sit under a blocking ridge of high pressure, which prevents moisture and storm systems from reaching the Southeast coast.

This pattern has left much of Florida and the coastal Carolinas with rainfall deficits, and the current model guidance shows little to no measurable precipitation for the next 10 days. The anomaly has drawn attention from meteorologists who say that such an extended dry spell in November could elevate the risk of brush fires and prolonged drought conditions if it continues into December.

Thanksgiving Outlook

As the storm systems continue to track across the Midwest and South, travelers planning to hit the road for Thanksgiving week should prepare for wet conditions across Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee, where roadways may become slick or flooded in some areas.

Meanwhile, those traveling in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas can expect mostly dry and mild weather through the holiday, thanks to the high-pressure ridge keeping storm systems to the west.

Meteorologists Monitoring Possible Late-Week Storm Development

Meteorologists will continue to monitor model trends as additional shortwave disturbances could enhance rainfall later next week. The potential remains for another storm system to form around November 21–23, which may bring more organized thunderstorms to the South-Central region.

For now, residents across Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, and surrounding states should prepare for periods of heavy rain, isolated flooding, and stormy weather heading into Thanksgiving.

Stay tuned to SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com for continued updates on national and regional weather forecasts, including rainfall outlooks and Thanksgiving travel conditions.